S2S - Sea Ice Guidance

Statistically-generated Probabilistic Sea Ice Guidance for the week 3 to Seasonal Time Scale.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Sea_Ice_(19433906738).jpg

Project Summary

With rapidly changing sea ice conditions in the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean, the demand on the NWS Alaska is increasing for more specific sea ice guidance to support transportation logistics, subsistence activities, fisheries, and commercial interests. While dynamic coupled seasonal models have shown better skill in forecasting sea ice information in recent years, the guidance still shows significant bias and lacks the detail necessary, especially near the coast to capture nearshore impacts.

The intent of this project was to develop a method to provide probabilistic sea ice concentration information on a weekly basis for the upcoming 3- to 6-week time period, as well as monthly guidance up to to 9 months out derived from available seasonal sea ice and atmospheric dynamic models.

Project Partners

National Weather Service

Project Funding

This project was funded by the National Weather Service Alaska Sea Ice Program.